نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد شهری و منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)، تهران، ایران.
2 دکتری تخصصی اقتصاد نفت و گاز دانشگاه امام صادق (ع) و پژوهشگر دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The Persian Gulf region, due to its abundant energy resources and strategic geopolitical position, has consistently been a focal point for global powers, particularly the United States. Among the key factors influencing the global oil market and Iran’s oil production are U.S. oil production and exports, as well as the economic sanctions imposed on Iran. This study aims to examine the impact of U.S. sanctions and oil-related developments on Iran’s oil production. To this end, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model was employed, using annual data for the period 1965 to 2023
The ARDL model results indicate that U.S. sanctions have had a significant negative impact on Iran’s oil production in the short term. However, these effects have diminished or been mitigated in the medium and long term through adaptive policies. Furthermore, the increase in U.S. oil production and exports has constrained Iran’s oil production by reducing its market share. Conversely, Iran’s oil exports have played a critical and positive role in boosting domestic production, indicating a strong dependency between the two variables. The findings of this research can assist policymakers in formulating strategies to strengthen the resilience of Iran’s oil industry and maintain the country’s position in the global energy market.
Keywords: Iran’s oil production, oil exports, U.S. sanctions, global oil market, ARDL model
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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