بررسی روند سیکل قدرت آمریکا و تاثیر آن بر نظم جهانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای علوم سیاسی (اندیشه سیاسی)، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سیکل قدرت نمایی از افول و ظهور قدرت‌های بزرگ را نشان می‌دهد و به تبع نظم جهانی قدرت موردنظر نیز با افول سیکل قدرت تضعیف می‌شود. هدف از ارائه این مقاله جست‌وجوی ارتباط میان سیکل قدرت با نظم جهانی آمریکا است. مسئله‌ موردنظر این است که سیکل قدرت آمریکا چه تاثیری بر نظم جهانی آمریکا دارد و سوالی که مطرح‌شده اینکه چگونه سیکل قدرت آمریکا بر نظم جهانی آمریکا درصحنه بین‌المللی تاثیر گذاشته است؟ بر مبنای فرضیه، اگر قدرت آمریکا افول کند، این نظم جهانی نیز با آن افول خواهد کرد. افول نسبی آمریکا در منحنی چرخه قدرت و افول نسبی نظم نوین جهانی حاکی از آن است که نظام بین‌المللی به سمت پویایی چندقطبی حرکت می‌کند. نتایج نیز نشان می‌دهد هرچقدر آمریکا در سیکل قدرت روند افول را طی می‌کند، نظم نوین جهانی در مقیاس سیکل قدرت نیز ضعیف‌تر می‌شود. عواملی مانند، بحران مالی سال2008 و حضور آمریکا در جنگ‌های پرهزینه بعد از یازده سپتامبر و همچنین به علت سهم نسبی قدرت در سیستم جهانی با صعود قدرت‌های جهانی مانند هند، چین و ژاپن و ظهور قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای و فرا منطقه‌ای مانند ایران و روسیه در سیستم بین‌المللی، آمریکا در چرخه قدرت با افول نسبی مواجه شده است که نظم نوین جهانی را نیز با افول نسبی مواجه نموده است. روش پژوهش مورداستفاده در این تحقیق، روش همبستگی می‌باشد که مبتنی بر رویکرد توصیفی _ تحلیلی است و روش گردآوری داده‌ها نیز کتابخانه‌ای و اسنادی می‌باشد.

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