بازیگری چین در نظام پساکرونا؛ ورود به مرحله‏ ی سوم چرخه‏ ی قدرت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

مدرس و پژوهشگر پسادکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

سال 2019 دنیا شاهد شیوع یک پاندمی بود که کمتر کسی در ابتدا گمان می‏ کرد قرار است به یک بحران جهانی تبدیل شود. این بیماری با نام کووید-19 از چنان ظرفیت تاثیرگذاری برخوردار شد که برخی از دنیای پیش و پس از آن سخن به میان می ‏آورند، چرا که اگرچه به صورت یک بحران پزشکی شروع و سپس به یک بحران اجتماعی ارتقاء یافت، اما در نهایت خود را در قامت یک تهدید جهانی با تاثیرات ژئوپلیتیکی نشان داد. لذا مطالعه‏ ی مربوط به رابطه‏ ی بین این بیماری و ساختار نظام بین ‏الملل اهمیت انجام این پژوهش را برجسته می‏ نماید. از اینرو، این پژوهش با تمرکز بر قابلیت‏ های هژمون شدن چین به‏ عنوان اصلی‏ ترین چالش‏گر برتری آمریکا، این سوال را طرح می‏ کند که؛ افزایش نفوذ چین در نظام پساکرونا مبتنی بر چه نوع سناریوی است و آیا پکن می‏ تواند به مرحله ‏ی جایگزینی با هژمون ورود کند؟. نتایج تحقیق براساس رویکرد تلفیقی (کیفی و کمّی) و درچارچوب سناریوپردازی نشان داد کرونا بیشتر از آن که نقطه ‏ی عطفی در جهت تغییر هژمون باشد، به عنوان عنصری تسریع‏ کننده چین را وارد مرحله‏ ی سوم چرخه‏ ی قدرت یعنی مشروعیت ‏زدایی از هژمونی آمریکا کرد.

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