Examining the Impact of U.S. Oil and Sanction Policies on Iran’s Oil Production: An ARDL Approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Master's degree in Urban and Regional Economics, Imam Sadegh University, Tehran, Iran.

2 PhD in Oil and Gas Economics from Imam Sadeq University and researcher at Imam Hussein University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The Persian Gulf region, due to its abundant energy resources and strategic geopolitical position, has consistently been a focal point for global powers, particularly the United States. Among the key factors influencing the global oil market and Iran’s oil production are U.S. oil production and exports, as well as the economic sanctions imposed on Iran. This study aims to examine the impact of U.S. sanctions and oil-related developments on Iran’s oil production. To this end, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model was employed, using annual data for the period 1965 to 2023
The ARDL model results indicate that U.S. sanctions have had a significant negative impact on Iran’s oil production in the short term. However, these effects have diminished or been mitigated in the medium and long term through adaptive policies. Furthermore, the increase in U.S. oil production and exports has constrained Iran’s oil production by reducing its market share. Conversely, Iran’s oil exports have played a critical and positive role in boosting domestic production, indicating a strong dependency between the two variables. The findings of this research can assist policymakers in formulating strategies to strengthen the resilience of Iran’s oil industry and maintain the country’s position in the global energy market.

Keywords: Iran’s oil production, oil exports, U.S. sanctions, global oil market, ARDL model

Keywords

American Strategic Studies

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 07 July 2025

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History

  • Receive Date: 31 May 2025
  • Revise Date: 05 July 2025
  • Accept Date: 07 July 2025
  • Publish Date: 07 July 2025

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