America's decline, geopolitical configuration, balancing order, strategic alignment

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)

2 Faculty of Political Science and Law, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Imam Hossein University

Abstract

The decline of America is one of the most important mysteries in the environmental structure of the global system. Following such circumstances, the central and major concern of the research was raised: How will the geopolitical configuration of the global system be organized with the decline of America? In response to the main research question, our initial assumption was that with the decline of America, the environmental structure of the global system will face a new geopolitical configuration at the levels of power structure and arrangement of units, global order and behavioral control patterns and the structure of order control (control model, control goals, control strategy, control tools, and control tools). The research is descriptive and analytical in terms of strategy. Data collection was library and documentary, and the collection tool was also record-taking. The data organization method was also "open coding". Data analysis was based on the causal structural method. By examining the evidence, it was determined that the research hypothesis is adaptable. Following this fact, the evidence indicates that the power structure of the global system is moving towards a new arrangement of actors in the form of moving from a unipolar to a multipolar structure and from a hegemonic order to a multi-body equilibrium order. At the level of behavioral patterns, the system's environmental structure is on the verge of accumulating competition and subsequently spreading instability. The increasing role of regional powers in global geopolitics and increasing military spending are other important outcomes of America's decline at the level of global structure and order. Finally, the system's environmental structure is gradually preparing for the formation of a network of strategic alliances and alignments under the equilibrium order.

Keywords


Smiley face

بایزیدی، رحیم. (1400). گذار از نظم اقتصاد سیاسی بین‌الملل آمریکامحور: روندپژوهی کاربست ابزار تحریم و جهان‌روایی دلار، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی آمریکا، 1(1)، 118-97.   
سعیدی، روح‌الامین. (1400). تحلیل چیستی، چرایی و چگونگی افول آمریکا از منظر تئوری چرخه‌های بلند، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی آمریکا، 1(1)، 29-5.
کاشیان، عبدالمحمد. (1400). تحلیلی بر ماهیت احتضار سرمایه‌داری و افول قدرت اقتصادی آمریکا، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی آمریکا، 1(1)، 49- 31.
Azevedo, Daniel & et al. (2024). An Evolving BRICS & the Shifting World Order: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/brics- enlargement-and-shifting-world-order
Alterman., Lily, M. (2022). Pursuing Global Order in the Twenty-First Century. Published by: CSIS.
Ashraf, U. (2020). Revisiting international relations legacy on hegemony: The decline of American hegemony from comparative perspectives. Review of Economics and Political Science ahead-of-print: 10.1108/REPS-05-2019-0061.
Abrahamsen R., Williams, M.C. (2009). Security beyond the state: Global security assemblages in international politics. International Political Sociology 3: 1–17.
Adel, N. (2021). The crescent of Influence: The rise of Iran as a regional power in the middle east. Journal of EGSM, Vol. 1, No 53.
Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
AL-Arian, S. (2024). Palestine and the Arab Regional Order. Insight Turkey, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 21-34.
Alterman, J.B., McElwee, L. (2022). Pursuing Global Order in the Twenty-First Century, Published by: CSIS.
Bekkevold, J.I. (2024). China Has Become Powerful Before It Is Ric, Published by:  Foreign Policy.
Brzezinski, Z. (2016). The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. Basic Books.
Blaikie, N. (2009). Designing Social Research: The Logic of Anticipation, Polity Press.
Berls, R.E. (2021). Strengthening Russia’s Influence in International Affairs. Part I: The Quest for Great Power Status, Published by Nuclear Threat Initiative.
Barnett, M., Duvall, R. (2005). Power in International Politics. International Organization, Vol. 59, No. 1, pp. 39-75.
Baram, A. (2021). The socioeconomic cost of Iran’s hegemony, GIS Reports.
Ball, Desmond., et al. (2021). Asia’s New Geopolitics: Military Power and Regional Order. Routledge.
Benabdallah, L. (2021). Shaping the Future of Power. University of Michigan Press.
Brooks, Stephen G., Wohlforth, W.C. (2008). World Out of Balance. Princeton University Press.
Brzezinski, Z., Mearsheimer, J.J. (2009). Clash of the Titans, Published by Foreign policy. 
Bechev, D., Öztürk, A.E. (2022). Competing over Islam: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran in the Balkans: https://www.mei.edu/publications/competing-over-islam-turkey-saudi-arabia-and-iran-balkans
Chivvis, C., et al. (2023). South Africa in the Emerging World Order, Published by: Carnegien endowment for international peace.
CFR.org Editors. (2024). The U.S.-Japan Alliance:  https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-japan-alliance
Coward, M., et al. (2024) On the horizon: The futures of IR. Cambridge University Press.
Cordesman, A.H. (2023). China’s Emergence as a Superpower. Published by: CSIS.
Cropsey, S. (2018). Seeking Stability in The Structure of Power. Published by Hoover Institution.
Carranza, M.E. (2014). Rising Regional Powers and International Relations Theories: Comparing Brazil and India's Foreign Security Policies and Their Search for Great-Power Status. Foreign Policy Analysis, 10.1111/fpa.12065, pp1–23.
Doshi, R. (2021). The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order. Oxford University Press.
Daalder, I., et al. (2022). The Changing World Order. Published by: foreign affairs.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. Avid Reader Press.
David, M.P. (2022). China's Belt and Road and the New World Order: Geopolitical Threat or Risks and Opportunities of Interdependence? Published by: IGI-global.
Dasgupta, A., McLain Gill, D. (2023). Geopolitical Flux and the Future of International Relations: https://www.isdp.eu/people/amit-dasgupta/
Denemark, R., et al. (2000). World System History: The social science of long-term change. Rutledge.
Dutkiewicz, P., et al. (2021). Hegemony and World Order: Reimagining Power in Global Politics. Routledge.
Deutsch, K. David Singer, W. J. (1964). Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability. World Politics 16. 3. 390–406.
Dutta, S., Choudhury, D. (2024). Balancing Tides: India’s Competition with China for Dominance of the Indian Ocean Region: https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/balancing-tides-indias-competition-china-dominance-indian
Ehtisham, K. (2023). The Role of Regional Powers in the Contemporary Complex GeoPolitical Environment, Published by: Pakistan Army (CSAG/CCJ5).
Engelhardt, T.M. (2007). The End of Victory Culture: Cold War America and the Disillusioning of a Generation. University of Massachusetts Press.
Economy, E. (2024). China’s Vision for a New World Order, Published by: foreign affairs.
Ebert, H., Flemes, D. (2018). Regional Powers and Contested Leadership. Springer International Publishing; Palgrave Macmillan.
Friedman, G. (2009). The next 100 years: A forecast for the 21st century. Random House. Inc., New York.
Feng, H., He, K. (2018). US-China Competition and the South China Sea Disputes. Routledge.
Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (2023). Evolution of World Order, The Future of Revolutions in the 21st Century and the World System Reconfiguration, Published by: Political Science.
Guillen, A., Cortés, I. (2023). The Decline of American Hegemony: Biden’s Foreign Policy Towards China. Agrarian South, Volume 12, Issue 3.
Guetzkow, H., Singer, J.D. (1980). The Correlates of War. Vol. 1: Research Origins and Rationale. Vol. 2: Testing Some Realpolitik Models American Political Science Review / 12 Vol. 74; Iss. 4.
Gibler, D.M. (2008). International Military Alliances 1648–2008. CQ press.
Herman, A.L. (2007). The Idea of Decline in Western History. Free Press.
Ikenberry, G., John, E. (2002). America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Javadi Arjmand, M.J. (2018). Iran and Turkey in the South Caucasus: Competition and Cooperation. Journal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies 1, 1, 15-31.
Khan, U. (2024). The Decline of American Hegemony and the Emergence of Multipolar World Order: https://spinetimes.pk/the-decline-of-american-hegemony-and-the-emergence-of-multipolar-world-order/ 
Kynge, J. (2024). Beijing’s new world order, Published by: Financial Times.
Kissinger, H. (2023). Henry Kissinger explains how to avoid World War three, The economist.
Kissinger, H. (2012) On China. Penguin Books Press.  
Kissinger, H. (2015) WORLD ORDER: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History. Penguin Books.
Kuma, N., Krothwal, I. (2023). Theater of India-China strategic rivalry: The Indian Ocean. Comparative Strategy, Volume 42, - Issue 5.
Kim, T. (2016). The Supply Side of Security: A Market Theory of Military Alliances. Stanford University Press. 
Levent, S. (2024). Changing Balance of Power in the Global Setting and “Century of Türkiye” Vision. Asia-Pacific Review, Volume 31. 2024 - Issue 2.
Lake, David A., Morgan, P.M. (1997). Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World. Penn State University Press.
Lemke, D. (2002). Regions of war and peace. Cambridge University Press.
Monticone, R.C. (2008). The Changing Balance of Power. New York. Knopf.
Modleski, G. (1987). Long Cycles in World Politics. the Macmillan press Ltd.pp7_240.
Modleski, G. (2008). Globalization as Evolutionary Process Modeling Global Change. Rutledge. 
Mandelbaum, M., Friedman, T. (2011). That Used to be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back. Picador Press.
Mearsheimer, J.J. (2014). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. W. W. Norton & Company.
Men, H. (2020). Order of East Asia: Regional Transformation. Competition among Main Powers. and China’s Strategy. Springer Singapore; Springer.
Mearsheimer, J.J. (2021). The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics, Published by foreign affair.
Melkonian, S. (2024). Russia and Iran in the South Caucasus: Intersection and Clash of Interests:  https://mediamax.am/en/column/121547/
Miller, M., et al. (2023). Gaps in the U.S. Approach to Indian Ocean Security, Published by:  Council foreign Relations.
Moul, W. (1992). Polarity, balances of power and war: Explaining some puzzling correlates of war project results. International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, 18:2, 165-193.
Nye, J. (2023). India and the Global Balance of Power. Project Syndicate.
Nel, P., Nolte, D. (2010). Introduction: special section on regional. Review of International Studies, Volume 36 / Issue 04 / October 2010, pp 877 – 879.
Prys-Hansen, M., Frazier, E. (2024). The regional powers research program: a new way forward. International Politics, Volume 61, pages 1–12.
Pillsbury, M. (2015). The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, St. Martin’s Griffin.
 Patomäki, H. (2023). World Statehood: The Future of World Politics. Published by: Democracy without borders.
Paul, T.V., James, W.,  Michel, F. (2004). Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century. Stanford. CA: Stanford University Press.
Paul, T.V. (2018). Restraining Great Powers: Soft Balancing from Empires to the Global Era. Yale University Press.
Paul, T.V., Morgan, Patrick M., Wirtz, J.J. (2009). Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press.
Pardy, G. (2020). China in a Changing World, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studie.
Pattanaik, S. (2024). China-India rivalry in the Indian Ocean: https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2024/03/14/china-india-rivalry-in-the-indian-ocean
Parameswaran, P. (2024). Winning the China-US Narrative Competition in Southeast Asia: https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/winning-the-china-us-narrative-competition-in-southeast-asia/
Phillips, C. (2024). What next for Syria, Assad and HTS? Published by: Chatham house.
Rizzi, A. (2023). How the changing balance of power is shaking up the world, Published by: elpais.
Ray, D. (2021) Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. Avid Reader Press.
Schweller, R.L. (1997). New Realist Research on Alliances: Refining, Not Refuting. American Political Science Review. 91 (4): 927–930.
Stewart-Ingersoll, R., Frazier, D. (2010). India as a regional power: Identifying the impact of roles and foreign policy orientation on the South Asian security order. Journal Asian Security, Volume 6, Issue1, PP 51-73.
Samaranayake, N. (2023). Why the U.S. Wants to Step Up Engagement in the Indian Ocean, Published by: United States Institute of Peace.
Santoro, D. (2024). Don’t forget the “Indo” side of the Indo-Pacific: how the United States should approach the Indian Ocean Region, Published by: Pacific Forum.
Small, M., Singer, J.D. (1969). Formal Alliances, 1816-1965: An Extension of the Basic Data. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 257-282.
Suzuki, S., Krause, V., Singer, J.D. (2002). The Correlates of War Project: A Bibliographic History of the Scientific Study of War and Peace, 1964-2000, Conflict Management and Peace Science2002 / 01 Vol. 19; Iss. 2.
Singer, D. (2006). Stuart Bremer and the Inductive-Deductive Issue in the Correlates of War Project, 1970–2002, International Studies Perspectives Vol. 7; Iss. 4.
Singer, D. (1972). The “Correlates of War” Project: Interim Report and Rationale, World Politics / Volume 24 / Issue 02 /, pp 243 – 270.
Scheffran, J. (2000). Power Distribution, Coalition Formation and Multipolar Stability in International Systems: The Case of Southeast Europe, IFAC Proceedings Volumes, Volume 33.
Stewart, C. (2024). Think Bigger, Act Larger: A U.S.-Australia Led Coalition for a Combined Joint Deterrence Force in the Indo-Pacific, Published by: Carnegien endowment for international peace.
Smith, D. (2024). US and Japan announce new military agreements aimed at countering China, Published by: The Guardian.
Tuan, Nguyen B., et al. (2024). Geopolitical Competition Between India and China in the Indian. Ocean Region: The Case of Myanmar, Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Vol 13 No 6.
U.S. Naval Institute Staff. (2024). Report on U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: https://news.usni.org/2024/08/28/report-on-u-s-china-strategic-competition-in-south-and-east-china-seas-3
Varisco, A.E. (2013). Towards a Multi-Polar International System: https://www.e-ir.info/2013/06/03/towards-a-multi-polar-international-system-which-prospects-for-global-peace/
Volgy, Thomas J., et al. (2011) Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics, Palgrave Macmillan.
Wang, H., Miao, Lu. (2022). China and the World in a Changing Context: Perspectives from Ambassadors to China, Springer. 
Walt, S. (2018). he Hell of Good Intentions: America's Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy, Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Walton, D. (2007) Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century Multipolarity and the revolution in strategic perspective, published by Routledge.
Wulandari, W. (2024). Rivalry betWeen chaina and india in the indian ocean, BHUVANA Journal of Global Studies, VOL. 2 NO.2.
Wayman, F.W. (1984). Bipolarity and War: The Role of Capability Concentration and Alliance Patterns among Major Powers, 1816-1965, Journal of Peace Research / 01 Vol. 21; Iss 1.
Yin Li, Hak. (2021). China’s New World Order; Changes in the Non-Intervention Policy: https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/china-s-new-world-order.
Yusuf, S., Nabeshima, K. (2010). Changing the Industrial Geography in Asia: The Impact of China and India, World Bank Publications.
Yong, Keng O., Boon, T.H. (2024). US-China Strategic Competition and Southeast Asia: Enhancing Global Governance in a Fragmented World, pp 205–214.
Zakaria, F. (2008) The Post-American World, W. W. Norton & Company Pres
Volume 4, Issue 3 - Serial Number 15
Serial number 15 - Autumn 2024
December 2024
Pages 11-40
  • Receive Date: 15 September 2024
  • Revise Date: 30 November 2024
  • Accept Date: 21 December 2024
  • Publish Date: 23 December 2024