Future Studies (Extend Present) and Its Application in Joe Biden’s Middle East Policy: From Probable Scenarios until the Possible Future

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Corresponding author: Associate Professor, Department of Political Sciences, Birjand University, Northern Khorasan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of the Islamic Education, Allameh Tabatabaee University, Tehran, Iran

3 University of Political Science, Birjand University, Northern Khorasan, Iran

Abstract

Studying and recognizing past trends; Present Processes and explaining events and paths in the Future is the basis for decision-making in International Politics and Foreign relations in order to adopt appropriate Strategies. The Middle East has long been Considered a geo-strategic region for major powers such as the United States from the point of view geo-political theory, Geopolitical Imagination of Super Powers of Sensitive Global regions can affect their activity in the international system. In its Foreign policy the United States has always Considered the Middle East as a Strategic area that has Capacity to pursue its trans – regional interest and exerted influence in the region at Various times and With a Variety of Policies. The Main question of this article is how to predict the US Middle East Foreign policy under Biden era the Based on different Scenarios and Futures models? This is a Research Using a Future Study Framework based on Extend Present and with the Script Writing method they Study see to Explain and delineate the Four Future of Biden – era US Middle East foreign policy. The present paper hypothesizes that, based on Future Study Four Probable Scenarios can be considered for the Future of Biden’s Middle East Policy.

Keywords

Smiley face

References

فارسی

تیشه‌یار، ماندانا (۱۳۹۱)، آینده‌پژوهی در مطالعات استراتژیک، تهران: پژوهشکدۀ مطالعات راهبردی.
خاشعی، رضا (۱۳۹۱)، سفر به آینده؛ آینده‌پژوهی، مفاهیم، مبانی و روش‌ها، تهران: هنر رسانه اردیبهشت.
خوش‌دهان، علی (۱۳۹۲)، آینده‌پژوهی با تکنیک سناریونویسی، تهران: مرکز آموزش و تحقیقات صنعتی ایران.
دهقانی فیروزآبادی، جلال و فیروزه رادفر (۱۳۹۹)، «سیاست خارجی بایدن در قبال جمهوری اسلامی ایران»، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، ۲۳ (۴): ۲۵۲-۲۲۶.
سریع‌القلم، محمود (۱۳۹۹)، دولت بایدن و ایران (۲)، قابل دسترس از http://www.sariolghalam.com.
علیزاده، عزیز، وحیدی مطلق، وحید، و امیر ناظمی (۱۳۹۱)، سناریو‌نگاری یا برنامه‌ریزی بر پایۀ سناریو‌ها، تهران: اندیشگاه آتی‌نگار.
فرخی چشمه‌سلطانی، مجید و سعید عطار (۱۳۹۶)، «آینده‌پژوهی حضور ایالات متحده در غرب آسیا»، فصلنامه‌ آفاق امنیت، ۱۰ (۳۴): ۱۶۷- ۱۳۹.
مبینی‌کشه، زهرا و علی امیدی (۱۳۹۷)، «آینده‌پژوهی تروریسم و امنیت بین‌الملل»، فصلنامۀ پژوهش‌های حفاظتی-امنیتی، ۷ (۲۶): ۱۴۴- ۱۱۹.
مردوخی، بایزید (۱۳۹۱)، روش‌شناسی آینده‌نگاری، تهران: نشر نی.
موسوی‌نیا، سید رضا (۱۳۹۸)، «آینده‌پژوهی (الگوی امتداد حال) و کاربست نظریه‌های روابط بین‌الملل»،‌ فصلنامه علمی رهیافت‌های سیاسی و بین‌المللی، ۱۱ (۱): ۱۷۷-۱۵۶.
موسوی‌نیا، سید رضا (۱۳۹۹)،‌ «نقدی بر الگوی امتداد حال در آینده‌پژوهی؛‌ نمونه: تحریم‌های آمریکا علیه ایران تا ۲۰۲۲»، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، ۹ (۳۵): ۳۵-۹.

لاتین

Al-Alkim, Hassan Hamdan (2021), U.S. President Joe Biden’s Foreign Policy towards the Gulf, Open Journal of Political Science, 11 (378-401).
Al-masri, Abdulrahman, (2021), On the Way out Like Afghanistan? The Biden administration’s Syria Policy Labyrinth, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org./on-the-way-out-like-afghanistan-the-biden-administration-syria-policy-labyrinth/September-2021/.
‌Bruke, Terry, et al, (2019), Long Term Housing Futures for Australia: Using fore Sight to Explore Alternative Vision and Choices, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.
Dietrich, John (2015), the George W. Bush Foreign Policy Reader: Presidential Speeches with Commentary, Rutledge.
Donna, Daniel and Tom Mitchell, (2017), Trump Administrations Hails US-China Trade Deal, Financial Times..
Doyle, Timothy and Dennis Rumley (2020), the Rise and Return of the Indo-Pacific, Oxford University Press.
Hill, Christopher, (2014), The Future of Foreign Policy Analysis, the Journal of World Investment Trade, Volume (3), No.1. pp. 45-62.
Krieg, Andrea’s, (2016), Externalizing The Burden of War: The Obama Doctrine and US Foreign Policy in The Middle East, International Affairs, Volume (92), Issue (2), Pp. 97-115.
Lindgren, Mats and Band hold, Hans. (2018), Scenario Planning, The Link between Future and Strategy, Palgrave, mammillae.
Madhani, Amir (2021), Biden Calls Jordan King a Loyal ally Tough neighborhood, July 2021, http://www.apnews.com./biden-calls-jordan-king-a-loyal-ally-tough-neighborhood./
Mathews, Jessica T. (2021), Present at The Re-Creation?, Foreign Affairs.
Ryan, M. (2010), Neo-conservatism and the New American Century, Springer.
Slaughter, Richard. (2005), Glossary of Future Term, Foresight International, Brassard, Also see: Knowledge of Future Studies.
Taube, James. (2021), Biden’s Foreign Policy for the Middle East Class’s is a Revolution, March 17, 2021, http://foriegnPolicy.com/Biden’s-Foreign-Policy-for-the-middle-east-class’s-is-a-revolution.
Thompson, C. Bradly. (2015), Neo-Conservatism: An Obituary for an Idea, Rutledge.
Vakili, S. and Quill am, N. (2019), Getting to a New Iran Deal: A Guide for Trump, Washington, Tehran, Europe and The Middle East, Research Paper, London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, http://www.Chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2019-10-22.
Wright, Tom. (2020), The Foreign Policy of the 2021 Democrats the Atlantic. 19 March 2020/http://www.Theatlantic.com/Ideas/archive/2020/03/Foreign-Policy-2020-democrats/608293/Accessed.
||Zakaria, F. (2009), Post-American World and the rise of the rest. London: Penguin books.
American Strategic Studies
Volume 1, Issue 4
Winter Quarterly
March 2022
Pages 89-117

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 30 September 2021
  • Revise Date: 20 November 2021
  • Accept Date: 25 January 2022

Share

How to cite

Statistics