The Construction of the Threat Narrative and Transformation in the Logic of Representing Iran: A Systematic Content Analysis of U.S. Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessments (2006–2025)

Adami, Ali; Keyvan Hosseini, Seyed Asghar; Dehghani Firooz Abadi, Seyed Jalal; Yusefvand, Mohammad

The Construction of the Threat Narrative and Transformation in the Logic of Representing Iran: A Systematic Content Analysis of U.S. Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessments (2006–2025)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Ali Adami ¹

Seyed Asghar Keyvan Hosseini ¹

Seyed Jalal Dehghani Firooz Abadi ¹

Mohammad Yusefvand ²

¹ Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

² Ph.D. Candidate in Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community is among the most significant institutional documents within the U.S. national security architecture. Beyond its informational function, it also plays a substantial role in shaping the United States’ security agenda. Employing a qualitative content analysis methodology with an inductive approach and a longitudinal research design, this article seeks to answer the following question: How has the narrative of Iran as a threat been constructed in the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community from 2006 to 2025? In its effort to identify the pattern of Iran’s representation over the past two decades, the study systematically codes the texts and extracts the principal categories and subcategories constituting the threat narrative. It then analytically conceptualizes and describes their trajectory of transformation over time in terms of both continuity and semantic change. The findings indicate that the threat narrative concerning Iran in these documents possesses a relatively stable core organized around three principal components: nuclear capability, missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities, and the network of resistance forces. Nevertheless, the emphasis placed on these components and the logic through which they are articulated have not remained constant and have undergone several periods of semantic reconfiguration. During the early years, the dominant narrative was centered on the nuclear–missile nexus and a logic of urgency. In the post-JCPOA period, alongside a relative moderation in the emphasis on the nuclear dimension, the highlighting of multidomain aspects—including cyber capabilities and intelligence operations—emerged as a continuation of the threat framework. In the later years, concurrent with the growing prominence of sub-threshold patterns of competition and the integration of hard and non-hard instruments of power, the representation of Iran in certain sections became articulated through references to structural pressures and domestic constraints as well.

Keywords

Annual Threat Assessment

United States Intelligence Community

Threat Representation

Securitization

Iran

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