American Strategic Studies

American Strategic Studies

Interwar Deterrence: Escalation Management and Strategic Competition between the United States–NATO and Russia in the 2022 Ukraine War

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 : Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Humanities, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
2 M.A. Graduate in Regional Studies – Central Asia and the Caucasus, Faculty of Humanities, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
Abstract
In the strategic studies literature, deterrence has traditionally been defined as an instrument for preventing the outbreak of war. However, the 2022 Russia–Ukraine War demonstrated that the failure of initial deterrence does not necessarily signify the end of deterrence’s utility; rather, deterrence can continue to operate throughout an ongoing conflict. By developing the concept of “interwar deterrence,” this article examines the dynamics of mutual deterrence among the United States, NATO, and Russia during the Ukraine War. The central research question is: How were the parties involved, following the failure of deterrence to prevent the outbreak of war, able to employ military, nuclear, intelligence, cyber, economic, and diplomatic instruments to prevent uncontrolled escalation and direct confrontation between Russia and NATO? Using a documentary research method grounded in a descriptive–analytical approach and drawing upon strategic documents, security doctrines, and theoretical studies, the article demonstrates that interwar deterrence rested upon two distinct frameworks: the United States’ and NATO’s Integrated Deterrence strategy and Russia’s Strategic Deterrence framework. The findings indicate that although classical deterrence failed to prevent the outbreak of war, interwar deterrence succeeded in managing reciprocal behavior among the parties, thereby significantly reducing the likelihood of both horizontal and vertical escalation, direct NATO involvement in the conflict, and the occurrence of a nuclear confrontation. Accordingly, the experience of the Ukraine War suggests that deterrence in conflicts among major powers is not merely a pre-war mechanism; rather, it persists as a dynamic process throughout the course of war and becomes one of the principal components of strategic competition management.
Keywords

Adamsky, D. (2024). The Russian way of deterrence: Strategic culture, coercion, and war. Stanford University Press.
Adamsky, D. (2024/25). Quo vadis, Russian deterrence? Strategic culture and coercion innovations. International Security, 49(3), 50–83. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00502
Allison, R. (2026). Averting acute escalation in Russia’s war against Ukraine. International Affairs, 101(5), 1769–1791. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaf137
Axe, D. (2023, April 3). Ukraine’s getting a bunch of MiG-29s from Poland and Slovakia. But what it really wants is F-16s. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/03/ukraines-getting-a-bunch-of-mig-29s-from-poland-and-slovakia-but-what-it-really-wants-is-f-16s/
Babaei, M., Khalilinejad, R., & Keshkouipour, ?. (2025). A comparative study of the political-security strategies of the first Trump and Biden administrations in the Ukraine conflict. American Strategic Studies, 5(1), 187–215. https://doi.org/10.47176/ASR.2025.1272 [In Persian]
Blinken, A. (2022, February 20). Interview on CNN's "State of the Union" [Television interview]. CNN.
Brodie, B. (1946). The absolute weapon: Atomic power and world order. Harcourt Brace.
Brooks, S., & Tchantouridze, L. (2023). The war in Ukraine: The failure of deterrence. Security Science Journal, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.37458/ssj.4.2.2
Brown, D., Horton, J., & Ahmedzade, T. (2023, July 12). Ukraine weapons: What tanks and other equipment are the world giving? BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218
Bruusgaard, K. V. (2016). Russian strategic deterrence. Survival, 58(4), 7–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2016.1207945
Caswell, L. D., Jr. (2024). The case of Ukraine: Deterrence by resilience. In J. A. Nagl & K. Crombe (Eds.), A call to action: Lessons from Ukraine for the future force. Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press.
Center for Global Security Research. (2024). Escalation, de-escalation, and intra-war deterrence [Workshop summary]. Livermore, CA. https://cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/files/2024-08/Intrawar-Deterrence-Workshop-Summary.pdf
CNN. (2021, November 8). CIA Director had rare conversation with Putin while in Moscow last week. CNN Politics. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cia-director-putin-meeting/index.html
Colby, E. (2016). Prevailing in limited wars. In E. Colby (Ed.), Managing escalation and limiting war to achieve national objectives in a conflict in the Western Pacific. Center for a New American Security, file:///C:/Users/H.S/Downloads/766928.pdf
Congressional Research Service. (2021, July 1). The European Deterrence Initiative: A budgetary overview. https://comptroller.defense.gov/budget-materials
Costlow, M. R. (2024). Tailoring deterrence by studying restraints at the nuclear brink. National Institute for Public Policy
https://www.realcleardefense.com/2024/04/04/tailoring_deterrence_by_studying_restraints_at_the_nuclear_brink_1022957
Echevarria, A., II. (2024). Deterring war without threatening war: Rehabilitating the West’s risk-averse approach to deterrence. Military Strategy Magazine. https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/
Fink, A. L. (2017). The evolving Russian concept of strategic deterrence: Risks and responses. Arms Control Today. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2017-07/features/evolving-russian-concept-strategic-deterrence-risks-and-responses
Frederick, B., Cozad, M., & Stark, A. (2023). Escalation in the war in Ukraine: Lessons learned and risks for the future. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2807-1.html
Freedman, L. (2004). Deterrence (Themes for the 21st Century). Polity Press
Freedman, L. (2023a). The Russo-Ukrainian war and the durability of deterrence. Survival, 65(6), 7–36. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2285598
Freedman, L. (2023b). Salami Slicing, Boiled Frogs, and Russian red lines. comment is freed. retrieved from https://coilink.org/20.500.12592/33dk89z
Hakala, J., & Melnychuk, J. (2021). Russia’s strategy in cyberspace. NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. https://stratcomcoe.org/cuploads/pfiles/Nato-Cyber-Report_11-06-2021-4f4ce.pdf
Halas, Matus (2019).Proving a negative: why deterrence does not work in the Baltics, European Security,28(4),431-448, https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2019.1637855
Huth, P. (1988). Extended deterrence and the outbreak of war. American Political Science Review, 82(2), 423–443.
Huth, P., & Russett, B. (1988). Deterrence failure and crisis escalation. International Studies Quarterly, 32(1), 42.
Ionita, C.-C. (2023). Conventional and hybrid actions in the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Security and Defence Quarterly. https://securityanddefence.pl/Conventional-and-Hybrid-Action-in-the-Russia-s-invasion-of-Ukraine,168870,0,2.html
Jervis, R. (1982). Deterrence and perception. International Security, 7(3), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538549
Jones, S. G. (2025). Russia’s shadow war against the West. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west
Jonsson, O. (2019). The Russian understanding of war: Blurring the lines between war and peace. Georgetown University Press.
Kamalzare, H., & Kalantari, F. (2025). Analysis of hybrid warfare from the perspective of U.S. strategic documents: Capabilities and priorities. American Strategic Studies, 5(2), 11–37. doi: 10.47176/asr.2025.1287 [In Persian]
Kapsokoli, E. (2025). Weaponizing cyberspace: The Russia-Ukrainian war. Journal of Security Science. [volume/issue missing]
Kaushik, A. (2023). The war on Ukraine: A look at underemphasized Russian cyber operations. GLOBSEC. https://www.globsec.org/what-we-do/publications/war-ukraine-look-underemphasised-russian-cyber-operations
Kelley, M. (2024). ‘Understanding Russian Disinformation and How the Joint Force Can Address It’. US Army War College.https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/Article/3789933/understanding-russian-disinformation-and-how-the-joint-force-can-address-it
Kofman, M., Fink, A., & Edmonds, J. (2020). Russian strategy for escalation management: Evolution of key concepts. Center for Naval Analysis. https://www.cna.org/I_files/PDF/DIM-2020-U-026101-Final.pdf
Lanoszka, A., Sirotova, J., & Zaborowski, M. (2023). Will the Eastern flank be battle ready? GLOBSEC, https://www.globsec.org/what-we-do/publications/will-eastern-flank-be-battle-ready
Li, D., Allen, J. and Siemaszko, C. (24 February 2022). ‘Putin using false ‘Nazi’ narrative to justify Russia’s attack on Ukraine, experts say’. NBC.https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-claims-denazification-justify-russias-attack-ukraine-experts-say-rcna17537
Lo, J., Kang Jie, N., Lo, Hannah. (2022, September 1). Reconstructing the ladder: Towards a more considered model of escalation. Strategy Bridge.
Lupovici, A. (2023). Deterrence by delivery of arms: NATO and the war in Ukraine. Contemporary Security Policy, (4), 624–641. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2256572
Marahrens, S. (2024). The Russia-Ukraine conflict from a hybrid warfare cognitive perspective. The Defence Horizon Journal.
Masitoh, Y. T., Perwita, A. A. B., & Rudy, E. (2025). Integrated deterrence in practice: The 2022 United States National Defense Strategy towards the Russia-Ukraine war. International Journal of Humanities, Education, and Social Sciences, 3(3), 1030–1048. https://doi.org/10.58578/IJHESS.v3i3.7317
Mazarr, M. J. (2018). Understanding deterrence. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE295/RAND_PE295.pdf
Mazarr, M. J., & Ke, I. (2024). Integrated deterrence as a defense planning concept. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2263-1.html
Meisel, C. (2023, May). Failure in the “deterrence failure” dialogue. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/failures-in-the-deterrence-failure-dialogue/
Meiser, J. (2017). America abroad: The United States’ global role in the 21st century [Review of the book America abroad, by S. G. Brooks & W. C. Wohlforth]. Perspectives on Politics, 15,. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592717001980
Mills, C. (2023, August). Military assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion (Briefing Paper No. CBP-9477). UK House of Commons Library. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9477/
Miljković, M. D., & Marjanović, Z. M. (2023). The strategic deterrence measures of the Russian Federation: Terminology, definitions and some aspects of implementation in the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Vojno delo, 75 (1), 32–45. https://doi.org/10.5937/vojdelo2301032M
Mitchell, R. (2022, December 15). How Amazon put Ukraine’s ‘government in a box’ – and saved its economy from Russia. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-12-15/amazon-ukraine-war-cloud-data
Morgan, P. M. (2003). Deterrence now. Cambridge University Press.
National Defense Strategy of The United States of America (2022), (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 2022), https://media.defense.gov/2022/ Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR. PD
National Defense Strategy Commission. (2018). Providing for the common defense: The assessment and recommendations of the National Defense Strategy Commission. United States Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-11/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf
NATO. (2020, June 12). NATO recognizes Ukraine as Enhanced Opportunities Partner. NATO News. https://www.nato.int/
Pezard, S., & Rhoades, A. L. (2020). What provokes Putin's Russia? Deterring without unintended escalation. RAND Corporation.
Powell, R. (1990). Nuclear deterrence theory: The search for credibility. Cambridge University Press.
Rabel,  R.  (2025).  Global South and  western  divergence  on  Russia’s war  in  Ukraine: implications     for     world     order. International     Affairs,101,( 3), 1005–1021. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaf008
Reiter, D., & Poast, P. (2021). The truth about tripwires: Why small force deployments do not deter aggression. Texas National Security Review, 4(3), 33–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.26153/tsw/13989
Renz, B. (2023). Was the Russian invasion of Ukraine a failure of Western deterrence? Parameters, 53(4). https://doi.org/10.55540/0031-1723.3256
Roberts, B. (2021). Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review. The Washington Quarterly, 44(2), 12–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163665X.2021.1933745
Roberts, B. (2025). Between tragedy and catastrophe: Taking intra-war deterrence seriously (CGSR Livermore Paper). Center for Global Security Research. https://cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/files/2025.09/CGSR_Livermore_Paper_16_Between%20Tragedy%20and%20Catastrophe%20WEB_0.pdf
Russian National Security Strategy. (2015). Decree of the President of the Russian Federation. http://kremlin.ru/acts/bank/40391
Reuters. (2025, October 22). US hits top Russian oil companies with sanctions, EU bans Russian LNG.
https://www.reuters.com
Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and influence. Yale University Press.
Schelling, T. C. (2008). Arms and influence (3rd ed.). Yale University Press. (Original work published 1996)
Simonite, T. (2022). The race to archive social posts that may prove Russian war crimes. Wired. https://www.wired.com/story/open-source-russia-war-crimes-ukraine
Soofer, R., & Costlow, M. R. (2022, February 1). An introduction to the 2020 report on the nuclear employment strategy of the United States. Real Clear Defense. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/02/02/an_introduction_to_the_2020_report_on_the_nuclear_employment_strategy_of_the_united_states_814872.html
Stein, G.J. (2023). Escalation management in Ukraine: Assessing the U.S. response to Russia's manipulation of risk. Kissinger Center Papers, Johns Hopkins SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/programs-and-projects/kissinger-center-papers/escalation-management-ukraine-response-russias-manipulation-risk
Stoicescu, K., & Järvenpää, P. (2019). Contemporary deterrence: Insights and lessons from enhanced forward presence. International Centre for Defence and Security, https://icds.ee/en/contemporary-deterrence-insights-and-lessons-from-enhanced-forward-presence/
Taghon, S., & Bossuyt, F. (2025). It takes four to tango: Why Trump's disregard for Ukraine and Europe forecloses just and sustainable peace. Ghent Institute for International and European Studies, https://www.ugent.be/ps/politiekewetenschappen/gies/en/research/publications/gies_papers/2025-one-year-trump/
Terrill, W. A. (2009). Escalation and intrawar deterrence during limited wars in the Middle East, ( US Army War College Press, https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/622
Trebesch, C.; Nishikawa, T. (2026). Europe steps up: Ukraine support after four years of war, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, No. 203, www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/dd24a73f-4270-46c5-9c40-bcc9df4f1672-KPB2023_EN.pdf
Trenin, D. V., Avakyants, S. I., & Karaganov, S. A. (2024). From restraining to deterring: Nuclear weapons, geopolitics, coalition strategy. Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy, National Research University – Higher School of Economics. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://karaganov.ru/wpcontent/uploads/2024/11/from-restraining-to-deterring-1.pdf
U.S. Department of Defense. (2022). 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States.
U.S. Department of War (2024), Report on the Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States (also known as The 491 Report), November 15, https://nipp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Final-Documentation-1.1.pdf
Utgoff, V. A., & Wheeler, M. O. (2013). Deterring and defeating attempts to exploit a nuclear theory of victory (IDA Paper P-4978). Institute for Defense Analyses
Von Hlatky, S., Lambert-Deslandes, É. (2024). The Ukraine War and nuclear sharing in NATO'', International Affairs,100 (2), 509-530, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiae001
Warden, J. (2018). Limited nuclear war: The 21st century challenge for the United States (Livermore Paper No. 4). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, https://cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/files/2024-08/CGSR_LP4-FINAL.pdf
White House (2021, December 7). Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, December 7, 2021 [Press briefing]. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/12/07/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-and-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-december-7-2021/
Williams, H., Younis, R., MacKenzie, L., Ford, C. A., Gibbons, R. D., Panda, A., Sisson, M. W., & Weaver, G. (2024). Intra-war deterrence in a two-peer environment (Project Atom). Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://www.csis.org/analysis/project-atom-2024-intra-war-deterrence-two-peer-environment
Wilner, A. (2013). Fencing in warfare: Threats, punishment, and intra-war deterrence in counterterrorism. Security Studies, 22(4), 740–772. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2013.844524
Zarean, A., Mehraban halan, M., & Zarei, R. (2025). The role of economic sanctions in U.S. foreign policy: From behavior change to regime change. American Strategic Studies, 5(?), 59–87. https://doi.org/10.47176/ASR.2025.1247 [In Persian]
Zulhusni, M. (2024). Palantir and Microsoft partner to provide federal AI services. AINEWS. https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/news/palantir-and-microsoft-partner-federal-ai-services/
 
Volume 6, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
Serial number 22 - Summer 2026
Summer 2026

  • Receive Date 17 July 2025
  • Revise Date 14 August 2026
  • Accept Date 19 August 2026
  • Publish Date 23 July 2026